Jong AZ 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 2 for FC OSS and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 68% versus FC OSS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 71% | FC OSS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.04 xG and FC OSS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.240 / defence 1.175 | FC OSS attack 0.684 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.294. Data: 68 Jong AZ games / 69 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 61% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 19%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | FC OSS 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 90% | FC OSS 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 61% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong AZ 2.04 / FC OSS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.240 / def 1.175 | FC OSS attack 0.684 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC OSS xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 31 March 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Jong AZ 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 61% chance of winning, FC OSS a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Record (7 meetings): Jong AZ 3W | Draws 2 | FC OSS 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.24x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.79
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.08
1.04
FC OSS xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
2%
41.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.04 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 27W 14D 27L from 68 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 37L across 68 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 17W 5D 11L from 33 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 3W 10D 20L across 33 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.79 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 27W 14D 27L in their last 68 games (1.40 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 15D 37L in their last 68 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC OSS away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.70 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 67%, FC OSS 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Jong AZ and 46% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 36% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Jong AZ's matches and 46% of FC OSS's.
Do Jong AZ and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.04 xG and FC OSS 1.04 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.24 / defence 1.18 against FC OSS attack 0.68 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 61% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 19%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, FC OSS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.