Jong Ajax 3-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Emmen travel to Sportpark De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 September 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 1D 5L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Ajax 0.90 PPG, Emmen 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jong Ajax, 1 for Emmen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Emmen in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 76% and Emmen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 67% | Emmen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.66 xG and Emmen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.037 / defence 1.174 | Emmen attack 0.923 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: 42 Jong Ajax games / 4 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 24% | Emmen 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Emmen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 24% | Emmen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong Ajax 1.66 / Emmen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.037 / def 1.174 | Emmen attack 0.923 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Emmen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Emmen kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Jong Ajax 3 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Emmen part of?
Jong Ajax vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 44% chance of winning, Emmen a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong Ajax and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Emmen?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Emmen in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Emmen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.20
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.06
1.41
Emmen xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.41 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Ajax come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 10D 20L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 0.93 PPG from 42 outings (9W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.10 PPG, Emmen on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong Ajax's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (5W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.07 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Emmen have gone 9W 12D 21L in their last 42 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Emmen away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.30 PPG; Emmen away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 1, Emmen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Emmen 0-0 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Ajax at 80%, Emmen at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jong Ajax and 65% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Jong Ajax's games and 65% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong Ajax's matches and 65% of Emmen's.
Do Jong Ajax and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Emmen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and Emmen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 6, as Jong Ajax and Emmen drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.66 xG and Emmen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Emmen attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 24% | Emmen 33%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 67%, Emmen 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.10 PPG, Emmen 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.