Emmen 2-4 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Dordrecht at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.00 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Emmen have won 2, Dordrecht 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 56% versus Dordrecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 56% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.78 xG and Dordrecht 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.934 / defence 1.216 | Dordrecht attack 0.836 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.225. Data: 3 Emmen games / 41 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 50% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 27%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 3.70. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 40% | Dordrecht 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 50% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Emmen 1.78 / Dordrecht 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.934 / def 1.216 | Dordrecht attack 0.836 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Emmen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dordrecht xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Dordrecht kick off?
Emmen vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Emmen 2 - 4 Dordrecht.
Where is Emmen vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Dordrecht part of?
Emmen vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 50% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Emmen and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.29
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.02
1.25
Dordrecht xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
5%
22.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Emmen and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Emmen and 1.25 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen's recent record stands at 9W 12D 20L from 41 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 22L across 41 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 0.95 PPG, Dordrecht on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 4W 10D 6L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 3W 4D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.10 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 9W 10D 22L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Dordrecht away?
Emmen's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.10 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Emmen
1
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Dordrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 45%, Dordrecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Emmen) and 55% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Emmen's recent matches and 60% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Emmen's recent games and 55% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Emmen 2-4 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.78 xG and Dordrecht 1.25 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Dordrecht attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 50% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 27%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 56%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 0.95 PPG, Dordrecht 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.