Jong Ajax 1-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Jong Ajax welcome Cambuur to Sportcomplex De Toekomst. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's home record at Sportcomplex De Toekomst: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 2 for Cambuur and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 51% versus Cambuur 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 56% | Cambuur 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.38 xG and Cambuur 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.863 / defence 1.025 | Cambuur attack 1.183 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.487. Data: 63 Jong Ajax games / 61 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.13. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 60% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 16 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong Ajax 1.38 / Cambuur 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.863 / def 1.025 | Cambuur attack 1.183 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Cambuur xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 February 2026 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Jong Ajax 1 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur part of?
Jong Ajax vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 29% chance of winning, Cambuur a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong Ajax and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Cambuur in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 0.86x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
29%
3.48
25%
4.07
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.19
1.80
Cambuur xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
16%
6.07
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
5%
21.16
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.80 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Ajax come into this having played 63 games, going 13W 16D 34L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.94 PPG from 63 outings (37W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong Ajax's home form reads 9W 11D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.78 points per game from 32 outings (17W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.81 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 13W 16D 34L in their last 63 games (0.87 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 37W 11D 15L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.19 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cambuur in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Cambuur won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Cambuur have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 44%, Cambuur 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jong Ajax) and 47% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cambuur in 38%; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 47% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 47% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Jong Ajax 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.38 xG and Cambuur 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Cambuur attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 47%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 56%, Cambuur 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.