Jong Ajax 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 39%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Ajax vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Jong Ajax welcome Cambuur to Sportpark De Toekomst. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's home record at Sportpark De Toekomst: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark De Toekomst. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 1 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 56% versus Cambuur 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 64% | Cambuur 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.50 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.137 / defence 0.801 | Cambuur attack 1.370 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.307. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Jong Ajax games / 64 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Jong Ajax 30% | Cambuur 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 24 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong Ajax 1.50 / Cambuur 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.137 / def 0.801 | Cambuur attack 1.370 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cambuur xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 February 2025 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Jong Ajax 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur part of?
Jong Ajax vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 39% chance of winning, Cambuur a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong Ajax and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Cambuur in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 1.14x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.92
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.93
1.43
Cambuur xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.43 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Ajax come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 16D 30L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.44 PPG from 63 outings (27W 10D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.06 PPG, Cambuur on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong Ajax's home form reads 13W 8D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.55 points per game from 31 outings (15W 3D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.71 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 17W 16D 30L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 27W 10D 26L in their last 63 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.52 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Cambuur won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Cambuur have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 42%, Cambuur 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jong Ajax) and 61% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 55% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Jong Ajax's matches and 61% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong Ajax and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.50 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Cambuur attack 1.37 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 36%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 64%, Cambuur 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.06 PPG, Cambuur 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.