Groningen 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Groningen welcome NAC Breda to Euroborg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Groningen — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Groningen at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, NAC Breda have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Groningen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Groningen's games and 60% of NAC Breda's (from Groningen's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Groningen, 1 for NAC Breda and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Groningen 2–3 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
NAC Breda trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 48% versus NAC Breda 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 61% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.75 xG and NAC Breda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.164 / defence 0.856 | NAC Breda attack 1.201 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.334. NAC Breda have an above-average attack rating of 1.201, which lifts their away xG to 1.37. Data: built from Groningen's last 32 games and NAC Breda's last 70.
Result probabilities: Groningen 46% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 30%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.17 | Draw 4.11 | NAC Breda 3.37. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Groningen 60% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 33 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 46% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Groningen 1.75 / NAC Breda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.164 / def 0.856 | NAC Breda attack 1.201 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Groningen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.37
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Groningen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Groningen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Groningen 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Groningen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs NAC Breda part of?
Groningen vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 46% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Groningen and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Groningen's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 32 games and NAC Breda's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.11
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.12
1.37
NAC Breda xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Groningen and 1.37 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Groningen's recent record stands at 23W 12D 31L from 66 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 30W 10D 26L across 66 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.23 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 13W 7D 13L from their last 33 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 15W 4D 14L across their last 33 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.70 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 70%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
Groningen (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Groningen vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 23W 12D 31L in their last 66 games (1.23 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 30W 10D 26L in their last 66 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.39 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Aug 2024, when Groningen won Groningen 4-1 NAC Breda.
Groningen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Groningen
3
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NAC Breda?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Groningen 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and NAC Breda?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 48%, NAC Breda 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Groningen and 73% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Groningen's games and 70% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Groningen and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Groningen's matches and 73% of NAC Breda's.
Do Groningen and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Groningen's recent matches and 85% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and NAC Breda finished level at 1-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.75 xG and NAC Breda 1.37 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against NAC Breda attack 1.20 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 46% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 30%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 61%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.23 PPG, NAC Breda 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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