Jong Ajax 0-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and Den Bosch meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Den Bosch's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Jong Ajax. A 0.70 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Den Bosch in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Jong Ajax, 1 for Den Bosch and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 69% and Den Bosch 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 66% | Den Bosch 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.46 xG and Den Bosch 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.937 / defence 0.856 | Den Bosch attack 0.677 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.332. Data: 70 Jong Ajax games / 70 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 19%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Den Bosch 5.26. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 30% | Den Bosch 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Jong Ajax 1.46 / Den Bosch 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.937 / def 0.856 | Den Bosch attack 0.677 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Den Bosch xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Jong Ajax 0 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 53% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jong Ajax and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.68x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.54
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.23
0.77
Den Bosch xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
22.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.77 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 21W 19D 30L from 70 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 42L across 70 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Jong Ajax against 0.83 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 14W 9D 11L from 34 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 5W 5D 24L across 34 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.06 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 21W 19D 30L in their last 70 games (1.17 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 42L in their last 70 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.50 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Den Bosch have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 62%, Den Bosch 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Jong Ajax and 59% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 41% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Jong Ajax's matches and 59% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong Ajax and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 0-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.46 xG and Den Bosch 0.77 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Den Bosch attack 0.68 / defence 0.96, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 19%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 66%, Den Bosch 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.17 PPG, Den Bosch 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.