FC OSS 0-4 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Emmen travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.00 PPG versus Emmen's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Emmen, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for FC OSS.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (64 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (64 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 42% versus Emmen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 45% | Emmen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.24 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.719 / defence 1.071 | Emmen attack 0.899 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.246. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 FC OSS games / 63 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 28% | Emmen 35%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 60% | Emmen 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 28% | Emmen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG FC OSS 1.24 / Emmen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.719 / def 1.071 | Emmen attack 0.899 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Emmen xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Emmen kick off?
FC OSS vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Emmen?
FC OSS 0 - 4 Emmen.
Where is FC OSS vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Emmen part of?
FC OSS vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 37% chance of winning, Emmen a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC OSS and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Emmen?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Emmen in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Emmen's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.55
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.44
1.20
Emmen xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.20 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS come into this having played 64 games, going 16W 13D 35L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.44 PPG from 64 outings (27W 11D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC OSS's home form reads 12W 5D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — FC OSS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.50 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 16W 13D 35L in their last 64 games (0.95 PPG), while Emmen have gone 27W 11D 26L in their last 64 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.37 PPG; Emmen away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 53%, Emmen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC OSS) and 63% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 27% of games; Emmen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC OSS's games and 57% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC OSS's matches and 63% of Emmen's.
Do FC OSS and Emmen tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Emmen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC OSS 0-4 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.24 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Emmen outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against Emmen attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 37% | Draw 28% | Emmen 35%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 45%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.