FC OSS 0-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and De Graafschap meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 3W 1D 4L across 8 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 1D 1L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.25 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap have collected 1.62 PPG across 8 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.25 vs 1.62 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC OSS have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, De Graafschap in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 38% versus De Graafschap 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 62% | De Graafschap 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.74 xG and De Graafschap 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.286 / defence 1.303 | De Graafschap attack 1.052 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.343. FC OSS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 FC OSS games / 8 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 41%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 75% | De Graafschap 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG FC OSS 1.74 / De Graafschap 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.286 / def 1.303 | De Graafschap attack 1.052 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.84
De Graafschap xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
FC OSS 0 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is FC OSS vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs De Graafschap part of?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 37% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC OSS and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC OSS's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.05x) against FC OSS's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.70
22%
4.55
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.58
1.84
De Graafschap xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.03
7%
13.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC OSS and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.84 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 1D 4L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for FC OSS against 1.62 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC OSS's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.33 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC OSS
2
Draws
7
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, De Graafschap have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC OSS, 67% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC OSS and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; De Graafschap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC OSS's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC OSS and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC OSS 0-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.74 xG and De Graafschap 1.84 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. De Graafschap outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.29 / defence 1.30 against De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 37% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 41%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 62%, De Graafschap 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.25 PPG, De Graafschap 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.