FC Eindhoven 1-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 53%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees NAC Breda travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. NAC Breda's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Eindhoven's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Eindhoven, 0 for NAC Breda and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
NAC Breda trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 56% versus NAC Breda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 54% | NAC Breda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.12 xG and NAC Breda 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.139 / defence 0.988 | NAC Breda attack 1.086 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.815 / away 1.356. Data: 71 FC Eindhoven games / 70 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | NAC Breda 3.85. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | NAC Breda 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.12 / NAC Breda 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.139 / def 0.988 | NAC Breda attack 1.086 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.815 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.45
NAC Breda xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 53% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.14) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
53%
1.89
21%
4.79
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.57
1.45
NAC Breda xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
12%
8.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
3%
31.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.45 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 72 games, going 35W 17D 20L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.50 PPG from 72 outings (31W 15D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.69 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 22W 7D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.17 points per game from 36 outings (12W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.61 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 35W 17D 20L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 31W 15D 26L in their last 72 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or NAC Breda away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.03 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when NAC Breda 4-2 FC Eindhoven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 61%, NAC Breda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for FC Eindhoven and 72% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; NAC Breda in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Eindhoven's games and 64% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 72% of NAC Breda's.
Do FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC Eindhoven 1-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.12 xG and NAC Breda 1.45 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against NAC Breda attack 1.09 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 26%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, NAC Breda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.69 PPG, NAC Breda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.