FC Eindhoven 0-4 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 3D 4L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Louwers Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for FC Eindhoven, 1.30 for ADO Den Haag — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
ADO Den Haag hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that ADO Den Haag have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 48% and ADO Den Haag 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 48% | ADO Den Haag 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 0.86 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.639 / defence 0.983 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.061 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.465. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 FC Eindhoven games / 50 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 20% | Draw 29% | ADO Den Haag 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | ADO Den Haag 1.96. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 20% | ADO Den Haag 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 20% | Draw 29% | ADO Den Haag 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Eindhoven 0.86 / ADO Den Haag 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.639 / def 0.983 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.061 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.53
ADO Den Haag xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 4 ADO Den Haag.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag part of?
FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 20% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag?
Record (6 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 3 | ADO Den Haag 3W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.64x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.06x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
20%
5.07
29%
3.47
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.39
1.53
ADO Den Haag xG
5.07
20%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
4%
23.41
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.0 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.53 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 19D 18L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 19W 18D 13L from 50 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.50 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (5W 10D 9L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 10W 8D 6L from 24 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 72%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 19D 18L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 19W 18D 13L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.04 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 0-4 on 1 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
7
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when ADO Den Haag 4-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 42%, ADO Den Haag 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC Eindhoven) and 67% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of FC Eindhoven's games and 71% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 67% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat FC Eindhoven 0-4 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 0.86 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.53 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 0.9 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.53 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.64 / defence 0.98 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 20% | Draw 29% | ADO Den Haag 51%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 48%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.16 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.