Emmen vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Waalwijk at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Emmen — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Emmen, 2 for Waalwijk and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Emmen in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 61% and Waalwijk 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 65% | Waalwijk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.78 xG and Waalwijk 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.052 / defence 0.899 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Emmen games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 22%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Waalwijk lead the H2H ledger, but Emmen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 70% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Emmen 1.78 / Waalwijk 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.052 / def 0.899 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Emmen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Waalwijk xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Emmen vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Waalwijk part of?
Emmen vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 55% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Emmen and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 3 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are Emmen and Waalwijk in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.05) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.30
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.83
1.04
Waalwijk xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
26.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Emmen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Emmen and 1.04 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen's recent record stands at 19W 10D 20L from 49 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 14L across 49 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.37 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 13W 5D 6L from 24 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Emmen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 7W 10D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.80 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 78%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 18D 14L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Waalwijk away?
Emmen's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.83 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Waalwijk runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Waalwijk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Emmen
3
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Waalwijk?
From 5 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Waalwijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Emmen at 62%, Waalwijk at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Emmen and 58% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Emmen's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Emmen's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do Emmen and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.