Dordrecht 2-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Roda at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 4W 6D 0L at M-Scores Stadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 2, Roda 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 63% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 57% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Roda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.102 / defence 1.049 | Roda attack 1.115 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.276. Data: 63 Dordrecht games / 63 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Roda 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 3.33. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Roda lead the H2H ledger, but Dordrecht carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 80% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Roda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Dordrecht 1.90 / Roda 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.102 / def 1.049 | Roda attack 1.115 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Roda xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Roda kick off?
Dordrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 Roda.
Where is Dordrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Roda part of?
Dordrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 47% chance of winning, Roda a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Dordrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 0 | Roda 4W.
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.10) and Roda's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.35
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.39
1.49
Roda xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
5%
22.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.49 for Roda, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 30W 24D 11L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 31W 19D 15L from 65 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.75 PPG, Roda on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.94 PPG from 32 outings (16W 14D 2L).
On the road, Roda have gone 10W 12D 10L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Roda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.63 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 30W 24D 11L in their last 65 games (1.75 PPG), while Roda have gone 31W 19D 15L in their last 65 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Roda away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.94 PPG; Roda away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
0
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 62%, Roda 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dordrecht) and 47% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Roda in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Dordrecht's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dordrecht's recent games and 47% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Roda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Roda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Roda 2-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Roda 1.49 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Roda attack 1.11 / defence 1.03, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Roda 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 57%, Roda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.75 PPG, Roda 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.