Den Bosch 1-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Stadion De Vliert to face Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Den Bosch. A 0.60 PPG lead over Jong PSV U21 (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Den Bosch 2W, Jong PSV U21 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 50% versus Jong PSV U21 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 57% | Jong PSV U21 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.63 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.071 / defence 1.134 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.914 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. Data: 56 Den Bosch games / 56 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 40% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 33%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Jong PSV U21 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 60% | Jong PSV U21 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 40% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Den Bosch 1.63 / Jong PSV U21 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.071 / def 1.134 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.914 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 40% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
Record (5 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.91x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.76
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.09
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.46 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 16W 14D 26L from 56 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 31L across 56 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.02 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 7W 9D 12L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 9W 3D 16L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.59 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 16W 14D 26L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 9D 31L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.07 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 4, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-1 Den Bosch.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 61%, Jong PSV U21 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Den Bosch and 71% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Den Bosch's games and 57% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 71% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 finished level at 1-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.63 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.07 / defence 1.13 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 40% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 33%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 57%, Jong PSV U21 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.11 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.