De Graafschap vs Vitesse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Vitesse travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027, 10:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L at De Vijverberg — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Vitesse's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 2 for Vitesse and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–4 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Vitesse trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and Vitesse 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | Vitesse 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.19 xG and Vitesse 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / defence 1.145 | Vitesse attack 0.897 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Vitesse's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 49 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 30% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 45%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Vitesse 2.22. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Vitesse 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 30% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG De Graafschap 1.19 / Vitesse 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / def 1.145 | Vitesse attack 0.897 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Vitesse xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Vitesse kick off?
De Graafschap vs Vitesse is scheduled to kick off at 10:15 on Sunday 25 April 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Vitesse part of?
De Graafschap vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 30% chance of winning, Vitesse a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both De Graafschap and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Vitesse?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Vitesse in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.89x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
30%
3.34
26%
3.92
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.69
1.50
Vitesse xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.50 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap come into this having played 49 games, going 20W 12D 17L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.49 PPG from 49 outings (20W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.47 PPG, Vitesse on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
De Graafschap's home form reads 11W 4D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.63 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Vitesse in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Vitesse in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.54 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Vitesse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
0
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Vitesse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 75%, Vitesse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 54% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of De Graafschap's games and 50% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 54% of Vitesse's.
Do De Graafschap and Vitesse tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.