De Graafschap 2-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Roda at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Roda in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 65% and Roda 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Roda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.71 xG and Roda 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.112 / defence 0.980 | Roda attack 0.848 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.444. Data: 57 De Graafschap games / 57 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 25% | Roda 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 25% | Roda 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG De Graafschap 1.71 / Roda 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.112 / def 0.980 | Roda attack 0.848 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Roda xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Roda kick off?
De Graafschap vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
De Graafschap 2 - 3 Roda.
Where is De Graafschap vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Roda part of?
De Graafschap vs Roda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 49% chance of winning, Roda a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both De Graafschap and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 2 | Roda 4W.
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.04
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.91
1.20
Roda xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
5%
20.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.20 for Roda, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 57 games, going 28W 13D 16L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.35 PPG from 57 outings (20W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.70 PPG, Roda on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 18W 5D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (8W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.39 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 28W 13D 16L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 17D 20L in their last 57 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Roda away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.11 PPG; Roda away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 61%, Roda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for De Graafschap and 64% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of De Graafschap's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of De Graafschap's matches and 64% of Roda's.
Do De Graafschap and Roda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Roda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat De Graafschap 2-3 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.71 xG and Roda 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Roda attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 49% | Draw 25% | Roda 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Roda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.70 PPG, Roda 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.