De Graafschap 3-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 3D 2L at De Vijverberg — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong PSV U21 in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, De Graafschap have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 8 meetings, with Jong PSV U21 managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 62% and Jong PSV U21 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 58% | Jong PSV U21 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.79 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.901 / defence 1.100 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.315 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.362. Jong PSV U21 have an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 De Graafschap games / 50 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 43%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.78 | Draw 4.76 | Jong PSV U21 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
De Graafschap dominate the H2H record, yet Jong PSV U21 are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Jong PSV U21 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG De Graafschap 1.79 / Jong PSV U21 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.901 / def 1.100 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.315 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Jong PSV U21 xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap 3 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 36% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 43% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 6W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.31x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
36%
2.79
21%
4.69
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.76
1.97
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
14%
7.17
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
5%
20.02
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.97 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 21W 13D 16L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 14W 9D 27L from 50 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.56 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 13D 16L in their last 50 games (1.52 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
De Graafschap have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 8, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 60%, Jong PSV U21 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for De Graafschap and 60% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of De Graafschap's games and 56% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of De Graafschap's matches and 60% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 3-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.79 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.97 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.31 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 36% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 43%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, Jong PSV U21 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.