De Graafschap 5-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates De Graafschap at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 7W 0D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.10 PPG, Jong AZ 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 3, Jong AZ 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Jong AZ 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | Jong AZ 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.19 xG and Jong AZ 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.265 / defence 0.879 | Jong AZ attack 1.045 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.246. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 De Graafschap games / 63 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 61% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 5.26. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 61% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG De Graafschap 2.19 / Jong AZ 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.265 / def 0.879 | Jong AZ attack 1.045 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Jong AZ xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap 5 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 61% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.26x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.89
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.34
1.15
Jong AZ xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
2%
47.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.15 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 63 games, going 29W 13D 21L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.37 PPG from 63 outings (24W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.59 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 20W 4D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.67 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 68%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 29W 13D 21L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 24W 14D 25L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong AZ away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.06 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 61%, Jong AZ at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 64% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of De Graafschap's games and 71% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 64% of Jong AZ's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong AZ tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 5-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.19 xG and Jong AZ 1.15 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 0.88 against Jong AZ attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 61% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.59 PPG, Jong AZ 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.