De Graafschap vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 55%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this De Graafschap vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as De Graafschap welcome FC Volendam to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Volendam's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 3 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 77% and FC Volendam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 72% | FC Volendam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.13 xG and FC Volendam 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.898 / defence 1.145 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 De Graafschap games / 11 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 25%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 4.00. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG De Graafschap 2.13 / FC Volendam 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.898 / def 1.145 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Volendam xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Volendam kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 March 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 55% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.81
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.50
1.38
FC Volendam xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
12%
8.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
3%
34.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.38 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 20W 12D 15L from 47 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 24L across 47 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 11W 4D 7L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 3W 2D 17L across 22 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 games (1.53 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Volendam away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.68 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2021, when FC Volendam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 77%, FC Volendam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for De Graafschap and 54% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of De Graafschap's games and 46% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of De Graafschap's matches and 54% of FC Volendam's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Volendam tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.