Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitesse have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Vitesse's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Vitesse, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 6–0 with Cambuur winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Vitesse have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 59% versus Vitesse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 58% | Vitesse 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.17 xG and Vitesse 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.082 / defence 0.898 | Vitesse attack 0.987 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.260. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Cambuur games / 35 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 18%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Vitesse 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Cambuur 2.17 / Vitesse 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.082 / def 0.898 | Vitesse attack 0.987 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Vitesse xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Vitesse kick off?
Cambuur vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Cambuur vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Vitesse part of?
Cambuur vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 61% chance of winning, Vitesse a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cambuur and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
Record (5 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 4W.
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.08x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.99x) against Cambuur's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.71
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.29
1.12
Vitesse xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
2%
48.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.12 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 30W 12D 27L from 69 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 37L across 69 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 14W 7D 13L from 34 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 8W 5D 21L across 34 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.13 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 30W 12D 27L in their last 69 games (1.48 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 16W 16D 37L in their last 69 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Vitesse away?
Cambuur's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.44 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, Vitesse have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 65%, Vitesse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Cambuur and 68% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cambuur's games and 50% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cambuur's matches and 68% of Vitesse's.
Do Cambuur and Vitesse tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Vitesse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Vitesse 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.17 xG and Vitesse 1.12 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.08 / defence 0.90 against Vitesse attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 18%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 58%, Vitesse 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.