Cambuur 3-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees De Graafschap travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 7W 1D 2L at Kooi Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kooi Stadion.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cambuur 2.00 PPG, De Graafschap 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 2, De Graafschap 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 61% and De Graafschap 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 59% | De Graafschap 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.44 xG and De Graafschap 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.975 / defence 0.786 | De Graafschap attack 0.904 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.273. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Cambuur games / 69 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 24%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 4.17. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 40% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Cambuur 1.44 / De Graafschap 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.975 / def 0.786 | De Graafschap attack 0.904 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.91
De Graafschap xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs De Graafschap kick off?
Cambuur vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Cambuur 3 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Cambuur vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs De Graafschap part of?
Cambuur vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 49% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cambuur and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Cambuur and De Graafschap in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.97) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.70
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.34
0.91
De Graafschap xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.91 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 30W 12D 27L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 33W 14D 22L from 69 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.48 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (13W 8D 13L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 11W 9D 14L from 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.78 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 62%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 30W 12D 27L in their last 69 games (1.48 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 33W 14D 22L in their last 69 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or De Graafschap away?
Cambuur's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.38 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, De Graafschap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when De Graafschap 3-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 65%, De Graafschap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Cambuur and 65% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cambuur's games and 65% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cambuur's matches and 65% of De Graafschap's.
Do Cambuur and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out De Graafschap 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat De Graafschap 3-2 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.44 xG and De Graafschap 0.91 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.97 / defence 0.79 against De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 49% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 24%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 59%, De Graafschap 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.48 PPG, De Graafschap 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.