Almere City FC vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 7W 0D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Almere City FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 4–1 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 63% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.69 xG and De Graafschap 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.870 / defence 0.638 | De Graafschap attack 0.910 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.638 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Almere City FC games / 49 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 57% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 19%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 40% | De Graafschap 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 57% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Almere City FC 1.69 / De Graafschap 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.870 / def 0.638 | De Graafschap attack 0.910 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
De Graafschap xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kick off?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap part of?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 57% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Almere City FC and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Record (9 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.91x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.17
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.54
0.85
De Graafschap xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
29.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.85 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 27W 6D 18L from 51 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 18L across 51 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.47 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 16W 3D 6L from 25 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.78 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 75%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 27W 6D 18L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 18L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or De Graafschap away?
Almere City FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 2.04 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 1-4 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, De Graafschap 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Almere City FC and 72% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Almere City FC's games and 76% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Almere City FC's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do Almere City FC and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.