Venezia 5-3 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Venezia welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Venezia 1.70 PPG, Sampdoria 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Venezia, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Sampdoria 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 54% | Sampdoria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.97 xG and Sampdoria 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.299 / defence 1.244 | Sampdoria attack 0.979 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.168. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Venezia games / 19 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 49% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 27%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Sampdoria 3.70. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 80% | Sampdoria 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 49% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Venezia 1.97 / Sampdoria 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.299 / def 1.244 | Sampdoria attack 0.979 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Venezia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sampdoria xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Venezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Venezia 5 - 3 Sampdoria.
Where is Venezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Venezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 49% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Venezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sampdoria?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Venezia and Sampdoria in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.30) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.24
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.39
1.42
Sampdoria xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
4%
26.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Venezia and 1.42 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 23W 15D 19L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 10W 14D 33L from 57 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 5W 6D 17L from 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.84 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 10W 14D 33L in their last 57 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Venezia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.64 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Sampdoria runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 3, Sampdoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Sampdoria?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 71%, Sampdoria 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Venezia) and 50% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Venezia's games and 54% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Venezia's matches and 50% of Sampdoria's.
Do Venezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Sampdoria 5-3 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.97 xG and Sampdoria 1.42 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sampdoria outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.30 / defence 1.24 against Sampdoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 49% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 27%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 54%, Sampdoria 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.