Pisa 2-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet in-form Reggiana provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Reggiana travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa in Serie B (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Reggiana have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reggiana away from home: 3W 2D 4L from their last 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Reggiana — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Pisa have won 0, Reggiana 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Pisa 0–0 Reggiana — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Reggiana trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 58% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 37% | Reggiana 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.38 xG and Reggiana 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.878 / defence 0.934 | Reggiana attack 1.019 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.160. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Pisa's last 57 games and Reggiana's last 19.
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 29%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.39 | Draw 3.43 | Reggiana 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reggiana (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 44% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 20 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Pisa 1.38 / Reggiana 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.878 / def 0.934 | Reggiana attack 1.019 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Reggiana xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Reggiana kick off?
Pisa vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Reggiana?
Pisa 2 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Pisa vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Reggiana part of?
Pisa vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Reggiana a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pisa and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 57 games and Reggiana's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.43
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
Reggiana xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Pisa and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Pisa and 1.10 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 7D 7L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.16 PPG, Reggiana on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across their last 9 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 9 away games (3W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.11 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.11 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Pisa or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Reggiana in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Pisa's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggiana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 2, Reggiana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Reggiana 0-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Reggiana?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 78%, Reggiana 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pisa) and 67% (Reggiana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Reggiana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Pisa's games and 44% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Pisa's matches and 67% of Reggiana's.
Do Pisa and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Pisa's recent matches and 78% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Reggiana share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Reggiana finished level at 2-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.38 xG and Reggiana 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Reggiana attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 42% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 29%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 37%, Reggiana 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggiana's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.16 PPG, Reggiana 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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