Venezia 2-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Reggiana encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Reggiana travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia in Serie B (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.

Form Guide

Venezia — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Reggiana stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

On current form, Venezia have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Venezia have won 1, Reggiana 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2026, ended Venezia 3–1 Reggiana — a Venezia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Venezia in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 52% | Reggiana 48%). Note also that Reggiana surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.77 xG and Reggiana 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.361 / defence 0.940 | Reggiana attack 0.809 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.154. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.361 — their 1.77 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 28 games and Reggiana's last 66.

Result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 18%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.73 | Draw 4.09 | Reggiana 5.67. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 50% (last 10 away games).

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