Pescara 4-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pescara vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Bari travel to Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia to take on Pescara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pescara stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pescara have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pescara at 0.90 PPG versus Bari's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pescara have won 0, Bari 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pescara trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bari trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 68% and Bari 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 64% | Bari 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.17 xG and Bari 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.874 / defence 1.270 | Bari attack 0.855 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.135. Data: 28 Pescara games / 66 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Bari 37%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Bari 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Pescara 60% | Bari 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Bari 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Pescara 1.17 / Bari 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 0.874 / def 1.270 | Bari attack 0.855 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Bari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bari xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Bari kick off?
Pescara vs Bari kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Bari?
Pescara 4 - 0 Bari.
Where is Pescara vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Bari part of?
Pescara vs Bari is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 34% chance of winning, Bari a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pescara and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Pescara 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Pescara and Bari in?
Pescara (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Bari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pescara's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Pescara's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
34%
2.94
29%
3.45
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Bari xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pescara and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Pescara and 1.23 for Bari, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pescara's recent record stands at 4W 10D 14L from 28 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 12L across 28 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pescara on 0.79 PPG, Bari on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pescara have managed 3W 5D 6L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 2W 5D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pescara are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.89 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Bari in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 4W 10D 14L in their last 28 games (0.79 PPG), while Bari have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Bari away?
Pescara's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.00 PPG; Bari away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pescara
1
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 1, Bari have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Pescara 4-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Bari?
Pescara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 64%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Pescara) and 50% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Pescara have failed to score in 29% of games; Bari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Pescara's games and 50% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Pescara's recent games and 50% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Bari tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pescara run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara beat Bari 4-0 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.17 xG and Bari 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against Bari attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Bari 37%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Pescara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 64%, Bari 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pescara 0.79 PPG, Bari 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pescara win broke the near-deadlock. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.