Ternana 2-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ternana face Feralpisalo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feralpisalo make the trip to Stadio Libero Liberati to face Ternana in Serie B (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ternana's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ternana have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Feralpisalo have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Feralpisalo's away record over their last 8 away games: 1W 2D 5L (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Feralpisalo — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 60% versus Feralpisalo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Feralpisalo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.36 xG and Feralpisalo 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.874 / defence 0.911 | Feralpisalo attack 0.722 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.152. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.428 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ternana's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Ternana's last 53 games and Feralpisalo's last 15.
Result probabilities: Ternana 50% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 19%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.01 | Draw 3.24 | Feralpisalo 5.16. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ternana 40% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 50% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 50% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Ternana 1.36 / Feralpisalo 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.874 / def 0.911 | Feralpisalo attack 0.722 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Ternana (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Feralpisalo xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Feralpisalo FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Ternana vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Ternana 2 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Ternana vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Feralpisalo part of?
Ternana vs Feralpisalo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 50% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ternana and Feralpisalo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Ternana vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.87) and Feralpisalo's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Feralpisalo's attack (0.72x) against Ternana's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 53 games and Feralpisalo's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.24
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.12
0.76
Feralpisalo xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
5%
20.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Feralpisalo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ternana and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ternana and 0.76 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 2W 5D 8L from 15 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 10L across 15 games — 0.47 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Ternana against 0.47 for Feralpisalo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 1W 3D 4L from their last 8 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across their last 8 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.67 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
Ternana (Home) vs Feralpisalo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Ternana vs Feralpisalo Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 1W 4D 10L in their last 15 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Feralpisalo away?
Ternana's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 0.75 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Ternana and Feralpisalo, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Feralpisalo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Feralpisalo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 2, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Feralpisalo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Feralpisalo 0-1 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Feralpisalo?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 38%, Feralpisalo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ternana) and 62% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Ternana have failed to score in 50% of games; Feralpisalo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Feralpisalo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Feralpisalo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Feralpisalo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ternana's recent games and 62% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Feralpisalo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 75% of Feralpisalo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Feralpisalo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Feralpisalo 2-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.36 xG and Feralpisalo 0.76 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Feralpisalo attack 0.72 / defence 1.43, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 50% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 19%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Feralpisalo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 0.73 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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