Ascoli 1-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ascoli face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Spezia make the trip to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to face Ascoli in Serie B (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Ascoli (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ascoli at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ascoli are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Spezia have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Spezia's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Ascoli against 0.90 for Spezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 49% versus Spezia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 38% | Spezia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.45 xG and Spezia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.944 / defence 0.970 | Spezia attack 0.764 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.152. Spezia's defence rating of 1.403 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ascoli's projected output up. Spezia's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Ascoli's last 53 games and Spezia's last 15.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 50% | Draw 30% | Spezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.02 | Draw 3.37 | Spezia 4.81. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ascoli 50% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 50% | Draw 30% | Spezia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ascoli 1.45 / Spezia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.944 / def 0.970 | Spezia attack 0.764 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Spezia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ascoli vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Ascoli vs Spezia kick off?
Ascoli vs Spezia kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Spezia?
Ascoli 1 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Ascoli vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Spezia part of?
Ascoli vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 50% chance of winning, Spezia a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ascoli and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ascoli vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.76x) against Ascoli's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Ascoli's last 53 games and Spezia's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.37
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.30
0.85
Spezia xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
5%
20.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ascoli vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.85 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 15W 15D 23L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 6W 20D 27L from 53 games, 0.72 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Ascoli are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 7D 10L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 3W 8D 14L from their last 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.79 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Spezia
Blended
Ascoli (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ascoli
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Ascoli vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Ascoli and Spezia in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 15W 15D 23L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Spezia have gone 6W 20D 27L in their last 53 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Spezia away?
Ascoli's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.24 PPG; Spezia away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ascoli
0
Draws
2
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Ascoli vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Spezia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ascoli have won 0, Spezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2024: Spezia 2-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 48%, Spezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ascoli) and 52% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 36% of games; Spezia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ascoli vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ascoli and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ascoli's recent matches and 48% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ascoli and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ascoli's recent games and 52% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Ascoli's recent matches and 72% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Ascoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Ascoli 1-2 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.45 xG and Spezia 0.85 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Spezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.40, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 50% | Draw 30% | Spezia 21%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 38%, Spezia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ascoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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