Ternana 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Ternana take on Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ternana welcome Ascoli to Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ternana have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Ternana have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ascoli — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ascoli's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ternana) versus 1.20 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Ternana's games and 60% of Ascoli's (from Ternana's last 10 home games and Ascoli's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Ascoli have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Ternana.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Ternana 0–2 Ascoli — a Ascoli win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Ascoli have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 54% versus Ascoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 51% | Ascoli 38%). Note also that Ascoli surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Ternana recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.787 / defence 0.853 | Ascoli attack 0.826 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.201. Ternana's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Ternana's last 72 games and Ascoli's last 72.
Result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 38% | Ascoli 28%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.96 | Draw 2.62 | Ascoli 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ternana's last 10 home games and Ascoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ternana 60% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 38% | Ascoli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Ternana 0.95 / Ascoli 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.787 / def 0.853 | Ascoli attack 0.826 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ascoli xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Ascoli kick off?
Ternana vs Ascoli kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Ternana 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Ternana vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Ascoli part of?
Ternana vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 34% chance of winning, Ascoli a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ternana and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Ternana vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.79) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 72 games and Ascoli's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
38%
2.62
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.80
0.85
Ascoli xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ternana and 0.85 for Ascoli, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 20W 20D 32L from 72 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 19W 24D 29L across 72 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.11 PPG, Ascoli on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 12W 12D 12L from their last 36 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 9W 10D 17L across their last 36 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.01 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
Ternana (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Ternana vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 20W 20D 32L in their last 72 games (1.11 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 19W 24D 29L in their last 72 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Ascoli away?
Ternana's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.33 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from January 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Ascoli have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 May 2022, when Ascoli won Ascoli 4-1 Ternana.
Ternana's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
5
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Ascoli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 1, Ascoli have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Ternana 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 47%, Ascoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ternana) and 36% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 31% of games; Ascoli in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ternana's recent games and 36% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Ternana's recent matches and 67% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.85 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Ascoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 34% | Draw 38% | Ascoli 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 51%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.11 PPG, Ascoli 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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