Palermo 1-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palermo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Palermo, 1.00 for Reggiana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Palermo 1W, Reggiana 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Palermo — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Reggiana — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 59% versus Reggiana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 62% | Reggiana 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.38 xG and Reggiana 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.218 / defence 1.120 | Reggiana attack 0.903 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.182. Data: 72 Palermo games / 34 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 39% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 30%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Reggiana 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Reggiana 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 39% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Palermo 1.38 / Reggiana 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.218 / def 1.120 | Reggiana attack 0.903 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Palermo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Reggiana xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Reggiana kick off?
Palermo vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Reggiana?
Palermo 1 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Palermo vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Reggiana part of?
Palermo vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 39% chance of winning, Reggiana a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Palermo and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Palermo and Reggiana in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.22x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.90x) against Palermo's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.24
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.57
1.20
Reggiana xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
8%
13.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Palermo and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Palermo and 1.20 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palermo come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 10D 10L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.18 PPG from 34 outings (8W 16D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Palermo against 1.18 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Palermo's home form reads 8W 3D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 8W 16D 10L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Reggiana away?
Palermo's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.59 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Reggiana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Reggiana 1-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Reggiana?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 53%, Reggiana 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Palermo and 47% for Reggiana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 35%; Reggiana in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Palermo's recent matches and 41% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Palermo's matches and 47% of Reggiana's.
Do Palermo and Reggiana tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Palermo 1-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.38 xG and Reggiana 1.20 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.22 / defence 1.12 against Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 39% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 30%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 62%, Reggiana 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.53 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.