Sudtirol 2-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Reggiana meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sudtirol's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sudtirol at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggiana (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Sudtirol 3–1 Reggiana — a Sudtirol win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Reggiana — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 52% versus Reggiana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 52% | Reggiana 38%). Note also that Reggiana surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.13 xG and Reggiana 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.890 / defence 1.348 | Reggiana attack 0.987 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.121. Sudtirol's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 61 games and Reggiana's last 61.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 27% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 43%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.77 | Draw 3.29 | Reggiana 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 80% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 27% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sudtirol 1.13 / Reggiana 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.890 / def 1.348 | Reggiana attack 0.987 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Reggiana xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Reggiana kick off?
Sudtirol vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Sudtirol 2 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Sudtirol vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Reggiana part of?
Sudtirol vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 27% chance of winning, Reggiana a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sudtirol and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sudtirol vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.99x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 61 games and Reggiana's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
27%
3.77
30%
3.29
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.63
1.49
Reggiana xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
6%
16.77
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.49 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 15D 28L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.23 PPG from 61 outings (17W 24D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.23 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sudtirol's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 9D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.02 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Sudtirol (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 18W 15D 28L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 24D 20L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.17 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Reggiana in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 3 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sudtirol have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol on 3 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggiana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 4, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2026: Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Reggiana?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 53%, Reggiana 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sudtirol) and 43% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 33%; Sudtirol have failed to score in 33% of games; Reggiana in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 43% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sudtirol and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sudtirol's recent games and 43% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 60% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Reggiana 2-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.13 xG and Reggiana 1.49 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.89 / defence 1.35 against Reggiana attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 27% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 43%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Reggiana 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.13 PPG, Reggiana 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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