Sassuolo 2-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Juve Stabia at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sassuolo — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sassuolo have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sassuolo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Juve Stabia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sassuolo have won 0, Juve Stabia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 65% and Juve Stabia 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 61% | Juve Stabia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 2.18 xG and Juve Stabia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.664 / defence 1.108 | Juve Stabia attack 0.875 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.124. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.664 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Sassuolo games / 23 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 60% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 16%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Juve Stabia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | Juve Stabia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 60% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Sassuolo 2.18 / Juve Stabia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.664 / def 1.108 | Juve Stabia attack 0.875 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Juve Stabia xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia?
Sassuolo 2 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 60% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sassuolo and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Juve Stabia in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 1.66x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.24
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.27
1.09
Juve Stabia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
11%
8.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
2%
54.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.09 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 16W 4D 3L from 23 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 6L across 23 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sassuolo by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juve Stabia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 9W 1D 1L from 11 games — 2.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 2W 6D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.09 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 4D 3L in their last 23 games (2.26 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sassuolo's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 2.55 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
1
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Sassuolo 2-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Juve Stabia?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 64%, Juve Stabia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Sassuolo) and 46% (Juve Stabia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 9% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sassuolo's games and 54% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sassuolo's matches and 46% of Juve Stabia's.
Do Sassuolo and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Juve Stabia 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 2.18 xG and Juve Stabia 1.09 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.66 / defence 1.11 against Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 60% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 16%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 61%, Juve Stabia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.