Sudtirol 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sudtirol welcome Monza to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Sudtirol) versus 1.80 (Monza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 0 for Monza and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Monza trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 57% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.28 xG and Monza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.025 / defence 0.928 | Monza attack 1.047 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.060. Data: 61 Sudtirol games / 23 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 29% | Monza 30%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Monza 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 29% | Monza 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sudtirol 1.28 / Monza 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.025 / def 0.928 | Monza attack 1.047 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Monza xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Monza kick off?
Sudtirol vs Monza kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Monza?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Sudtirol vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Monza part of?
Sudtirol vs Monza is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 42% chance of winning, Monza a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sudtirol and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Monza 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Monza in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Monza (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 1.02x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.48
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.31
1.03
Monza xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.03 for Monza, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 18W 21D 22L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 17W 14D 30L from 61 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.23 PPG, Monza on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Monza have gone 7W 7D 16L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.05 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Monza in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 18W 21D 22L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while Monza have gone 17W 14D 30L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Monza away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.40 PPG; Monza away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Monza runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 67%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sudtirol's games and 50% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Sudtirol's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Monza tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Monza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 24, as Sudtirol and Monza drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.28 xG and Monza 1.03 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Monza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Monza attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 42% | Draw 29% | Monza 30%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Monza 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.23 PPG, Monza 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.