Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Juve Stabia travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 October 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.57 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.57 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 57% versus Juve Stabia 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 57% | Juve Stabia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.09 xG and Juve Stabia 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.815 / defence 0.790 | Juve Stabia attack 0.718 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.112. Sampdoria's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sampdoria games / 7 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 37% | Juve Stabia 19%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Juve Stabia 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Juve Stabia's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 50% | Juve Stabia 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 37% | Juve Stabia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Sampdoria 1.09 / Juve Stabia 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.815 / def 0.790 | Juve Stabia attack 0.718 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Juve Stabia xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 44% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 19% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sampdoria and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.81) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
44%
2.25
37%
2.72
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
1.73
0.63
Juve Stabia xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.63 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 2D 3L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juve Stabia in 29%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.33 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
2
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Sampdoria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Juve Stabia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sampdoria 0% BTTS, Juve Stabia 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sampdoria and 33% for Juve Stabia.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 67%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 67% of games; Juve Stabia in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 0% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sampdoria's recent games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.09 xG and Juve Stabia 0.63 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.81 / defence 0.79 against Juve Stabia attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 37% | Juve Stabia 19%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 57%, Juve Stabia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.