Sampdoria 1-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Carrarese at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Carrarese — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Carrarese — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 56% versus Carrarese 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 50% | Carrarese 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.36 xG and Carrarese 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.880 / defence 1.000 | Carrarese attack 0.652 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.052. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Sampdoria games / 18 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 52% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 17%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Carrarese 5.88. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Carrarese (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Carrarese 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 52% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Sampdoria 1.36 / Carrarese 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.880 / def 1.000 | Carrarese attack 0.652 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Carrarese xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Carrarese kick off?
Sampdoria vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Sampdoria vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Carrarese part of?
Sampdoria vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 52% chance of winning, Carrarese a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sampdoria and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Carrarese in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Carrarese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.88) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
52%
1.94
31%
3.20
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.05
0.69
Carrarese xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
4%
22.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.69 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 7D 7L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.06 PPG, Carrarese on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.83 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Carrarese in 28%.
Defensively: Carrarese in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Carrarese away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.12 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Carrarese in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Carrarese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sampdoria 25% BTTS, Carrarese 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Sampdoria and 38% for Carrarese.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Carrarese in 38%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 50% of games; Carrarese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 38% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sampdoria's recent games and 38% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sampdoria and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 19, as Sampdoria and Carrarese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.36 xG and Carrarese 0.69 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Carrarese attack 0.65 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 52% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 17%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 50%, Carrarese 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.06 PPG, Carrarese 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.