Sampdoria 0-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Brescia meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Sampdoria have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brescia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sampdoria, 1.10 for Brescia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Brescia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Brescia — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 62% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 52% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.09 xG and Brescia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.822 / defence 0.888 | Brescia attack 0.832 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.068. Data: 49 Sampdoria games / 49 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 38% | Brescia 23%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.56 | Draw 2.63 | Brescia 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Brescia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 38% | Brescia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Sampdoria 1.09 / Brescia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.822 / def 0.888 | Brescia attack 0.832 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Brescia xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Brescia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Brescia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Brescia part of?
Sampdoria vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 39% chance of winning, Brescia a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sampdoria and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Brescia?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Brescia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.82x the league average against Brescia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.83x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
39%
2.55
38%
2.65
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
1.88
0.79
Brescia xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.79 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 20W 12D 18L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 16W 17D 17L from 50 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.30 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 5W 8D 11L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Brescia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 20W 12D 18L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Brescia have gone 16W 17D 17L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Brescia away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.33 PPG; Brescia away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Brescia 1-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 54%, Brescia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sampdoria) and 38% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sampdoria's games and 62% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sampdoria's recent games and 38% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Brescia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Brescia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.09 xG and Brescia 0.79 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Brescia attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 39% | Draw 38% | Brescia 23%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Brescia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 52%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.44 PPG, Brescia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.