Salernitana 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cremonese (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Salernitana face Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Arechi to face Salernitana in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's home record at Stadio Arechi: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Salernitana lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Salernitana — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 56% versus Cremonese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 57% | Cremonese 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 0.89 xG and Cremonese 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.941 / defence 1.217 | Cremonese attack 1.217 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.121. Cremonese's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Salernitana games / 61 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 18% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 53%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 1.89. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 60% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 18% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Salernitana 0.89 / Cremonese 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.941 / def 1.217 | Cremonese attack 1.217 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Cremonese xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Cremonese kick off?
Salernitana vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Salernitana 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Salernitana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Cremonese part of?
Salernitana vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 18% chance of winning, Cremonese a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salernitana and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Salernitana and Cremonese in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.94x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.22x) against Salernitana's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
18%
5.56
29%
3.48
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.55
1.66
Cremonese xG
5.56
18%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
3%
29.25
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.66 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 7W 17D 37L from 61 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 15L across 61 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 5W 8D 18L from 31 games — 0.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 15W 8D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.44 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 7W 17D 37L in their last 61 games (0.62 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 29W 17D 15L in their last 61 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.74 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Cremonese in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Salernitana 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 68%, Cremonese 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Salernitana and 58% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 36%; Salernitana have failed to score in 32% of games; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Salernitana's games and 48% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Salernitana's matches and 58% of Cremonese's.
Do Salernitana and Cremonese tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 0.89 xG and Cremonese 1.66 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Cremonese attack 1.22 / defence 0.77, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 18% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 53%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 57%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.