Pisa 1-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Pisa welcome Salernitana to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 8W 2D 0L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Salernitana have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Pisa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pisa, 0 for Salernitana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 65% and Salernitana 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 55% | Salernitana 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 2.06 xG and Salernitana 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.370 / defence 0.899 | Salernitana attack 0.626 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.102. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Pisa games / 22 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 69% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 8%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.45 | Draw 4.35 | Salernitana 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (69%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 60% | Salernitana 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 69% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 42% | xG Pisa 2.06 / Salernitana 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.370 / def 0.899 | Salernitana attack 0.626 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Pisa (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Salernitana xG
42%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Salernitana kick off?
Pisa vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Salernitana?
Pisa 1 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Pisa vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Salernitana part of?
Pisa vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 69% chance of winning, Salernitana a 8% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pisa and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Pisa and Salernitana in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.37x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
69%
1.45
23%
4.40
8%
12.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.68
0.62
Salernitana xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
12.32
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
1%
96.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pisa and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Pisa and 0.62 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa's recent record stands at 24W 19D 17L from 60 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 7W 17D 36L across 60 games — 0.63 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 14W 11D 4L from 29 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 2W 9D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.90 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 24W 19D 17L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 7W 17D 36L in their last 60 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Salernitana away?
Pisa's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.83 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Salernitana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Salernitana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Salernitana?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 72%, Salernitana 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Pisa) and 52% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Pisa's games and 45% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Pisa's matches and 52% of Salernitana's.
Do Pisa and Salernitana tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Salernitana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Salernitana 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 2.06 xG and Salernitana 0.62 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.37 / defence 0.90 against Salernitana attack 0.63 / defence 1.24, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 69% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 8%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Salernitana 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.