Pescara 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pescara vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia to take on Pescara. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 October 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pescara stand at 1W 1D 3L from 5 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pescara's home record at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B appearances (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pescara are significantly better at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sudtirol have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sudtirol are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pescara register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Sudtirol in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Pescara in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 80% and Sudtirol 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pescara 100% | Sudtirol 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.63 xG and Sudtirol 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 1.181 / defence 1.275 | Sudtirol attack 1.137 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.169. Data: 5 Pescara games / 43 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 37%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 67% | Sudtirol 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Pescara 1.63 / Sudtirol 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 1.181 / def 1.275 | Sudtirol attack 1.137 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Sudtirol xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Sudtirol kick off?
Pescara vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Sudtirol?
Pescara 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Pescara vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Sudtirol part of?
Pescara vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 34% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Pescara and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pescara and Sudtirol in?
Pescara (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pescara's attack rating (1.18) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Pescara's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.46
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Pescara xG
Total xG
3.32
1.70
Sudtirol xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
6%
15.94
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Pescara and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Pescara and 1.70 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pescara come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Pescara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Pescara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Pescara are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Sudtirol in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pescara and Sudtirol runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
2
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Sudtirol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Pescara.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pescara at 80%, Sudtirol at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Pescara and 60% for Sudtirol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pescara's games and 80% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Pescara's matches and 60% of Sudtirol's.
Do Pescara and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pescara and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 6, as Pescara and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.63 xG and Sudtirol 1.70 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.18 / defence 1.27 against Sudtirol attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 37%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 100%, Sudtirol 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pescara managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.