Perugia 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Perugia take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Perugia host Pisa at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Perugia's home record at Stadio Renato Curi: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Pisa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pisa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Perugia, 0 for Pisa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Perugia trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 48% versus Pisa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 27% | Pisa 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.94 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.712 / defence 0.983 | Pisa attack 0.780 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.057. Perugia's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Perugia games / 33 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 34% | Draw 40% | Pisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.94 | Draw 2.50 | Pisa 3.70. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 34% | Draw 40% | Pisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Perugia 0.94 / Pisa 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.712 / def 0.983 | Pisa attack 0.780 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Pisa xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Pisa kick off?
Perugia vs Pisa kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Pisa?
Perugia 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Perugia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Pisa part of?
Perugia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 34% chance of winning, Pisa a 27% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Perugia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Perugia and Pisa in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.71) and Pisa's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
40%
2.53
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.75
0.81
Pisa xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Perugia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Perugia and 0.81 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Perugia's recent record stands at 11W 15D 7L from 33 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 6L across 33 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.45 PPG, Pisa on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 4W 7D 5L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 7W 4D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.24 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Pisa in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 11W 15D 7L in their last 33 games (1.45 PPG), while Pisa have gone 16W 11D 6L in their last 33 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.19 PPG; Pisa away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Perugia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pisa in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Perugia's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Perugia
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Pisa 2-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 44%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Perugia and 31% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pisa in 31%; Perugia have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Perugia's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Perugia's recent games and 31% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Pisa tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Pisa in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 34, as Perugia and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.94 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Pisa attack 0.78 / defence 1.27, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 34% | Draw 40% | Pisa 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 27%, Pisa 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.45 PPG, Pisa 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.