Palermo 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Venezia at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 30 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.50 PPG, Venezia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palermo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Venezia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Venezia have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Palermo's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Venezia winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Venezia have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 56% versus Venezia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 44% | Venezia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.46 xG and Venezia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.054 / defence 0.791 | Venezia attack 0.866 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.156. Palermo's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Palermo games / 5 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 49% | Draw 34% | Venezia 17%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.04 | Draw 2.94 | Venezia 5.88. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Palermo 60% | Venezia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 49% | Draw 34% | Venezia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Palermo 1.46 / Venezia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.054 / def 0.791 | Venezia attack 0.866 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Palermo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Venezia xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Venezia kick off?
Palermo vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 September 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Palermo 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Palermo vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Venezia part of?
Palermo vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 49% chance of winning, Venezia a 17% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Palermo and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
Record (6 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 5W.
What form are Palermo and Venezia in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Venezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.05) and Venezia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
49%
2.02
34%
2.95
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.25
0.79
Venezia xG
2.02
49%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
25.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Palermo and 0.79 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 12D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.86 PPG from 43 outings (7W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palermo's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.52 points per game from 21 outings (0W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.91 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Venezia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 games (1.47 PPG), while Venezia have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Venezia away?
Palermo's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.67 PPG; Venezia away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Palermo or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Venezia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
6
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Venezia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 43%, Venezia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Palermo) and 52% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Venezia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Palermo's recent matches and 57% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Palermo's recent games and 52% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Venezia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Venezia in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Venezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.46 xG and Venezia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Venezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 49% | Draw 34% | Venezia 17%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 44%, Venezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Venezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.