Cosenza 0-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Sudtirol at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Cosenza) versus 1.30 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 1, Sudtirol 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Cosenza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Sudtirol 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 40% | Sudtirol 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.23 xG and Sudtirol 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.887 / defence 0.821 | Sudtirol attack 0.973 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.114. Data: 45 Cosenza games / 45 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 25%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 50% | Sudtirol 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Cosenza 1.23 / Sudtirol 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.887 / def 0.821 | Sudtirol attack 0.973 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sudtirol xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Cosenza 0 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Cosenza vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Sudtirol part of?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 43% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cosenza and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 3 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Sudtirol in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.89) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.16
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.12
0.89
Sudtirol xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.89 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 17D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.24 PPG from 45 outings (15W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.24 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 6W 8D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.24 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 17D 15L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Sudtirol away?
Cosenza's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.18 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Sudtirol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cosenza's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 64%, Sudtirol 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cosenza) and 50% (Sudtirol).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cosenza's games and 64% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cosenza's recent games and 50% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Cosenza 0-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.23 xG and Sudtirol 0.89 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Sudtirol attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 43% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 25%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Sudtirol 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.24 PPG, Sudtirol 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.