Cosenza 0-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Pisa are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Cosenza 2W, Pisa 2W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Pisa 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 40% | Pisa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.88 xG and Pisa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.743 / defence 1.033 | Pisa attack 1.008 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.096. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Cosenza games / 68 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 34% | Pisa 40%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Pisa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 50% | Pisa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 34% | Pisa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Cosenza 0.88 / Pisa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.743 / def 1.033 | Pisa attack 1.008 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Pisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Pisa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Pisa kick off?
Cosenza vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Cosenza 0 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Cosenza vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Pisa part of?
Cosenza vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 26% chance of winning, Pisa a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cosenza and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
Record (7 meetings): Cosenza 2W | Draws 3 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.74x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.01x) against Cosenza's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
26%
3.81
34%
2.95
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.02
1.14
Pisa xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 15.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.14 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza's recent record stands at 17W 25D 26L from 68 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 20L across 68 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 9W 13D 12L from 34 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 11W 9D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.46 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 65%.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 17W 25D 26L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Pisa have gone 28W 20D 20L in their last 68 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.18 PPG; Pisa away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 56%, Pisa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cosenza) and 44% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 26% of games; Pisa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cosenza's games and 59% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 44% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Pisa tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Pisa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pisa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cosenza 0-3 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.88 xG and Pisa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pisa outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Pisa attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 26% | Draw 34% | Pisa 40%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Pisa 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.