Modena 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Empoli meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Modena's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Empoli's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Empoli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 61% and Empoli 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Empoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.94 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.067 / defence 0.885 | Empoli attack 0.836 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.101. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Modena games / 8 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 61% | Draw 27% | Empoli 12%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Modena (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Modena 70% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 61% | Draw 27% | Empoli 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Modena 1.94 / Empoli 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.067 / def 0.885 | Empoli attack 0.836 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Modena (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Empoli xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Empoli kick off?
Modena vs Empoli kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Empoli?
Modena 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Modena vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Empoli part of?
Modena vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 61% chance of winning, Empoli a 12% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Modena and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Empoli in?
Modena (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.84x) against Modena's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
61%
1.65
27%
3.67
12%
8.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Modena xG
Total xG
2.75
0.81
Empoli xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
8.31
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
57.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Modena and 0.81 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 18D 13L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.89 PPG from 46 outings (8W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Modena's home form reads 8W 9D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.96 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Empoli in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Empoli in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 15W 18D 13L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 17D 21L in their last 46 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Empoli away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Empoli away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Empoli 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Empoli?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Modena, 73% for Empoli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Modena) and 64% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Modena's games and 73% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Modena's matches and 64% of Empoli's.
Do Modena and Empoli tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Empoli in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.94 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 61% | Draw 27% | Empoli 12%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.