Modena vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Benevento at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Modena — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Serie B matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Modena have the edge — a 0.77 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Modena have won 1, Benevento 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benevento in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 33% versus Benevento 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 67% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.33 xG and Benevento 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.863 / defence 0.966 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Modena games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Benevento 22%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 4.55. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Benevento 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Benevento 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Modena 1.33 / Benevento 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.863 / def 0.966 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Modena (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Benevento xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Benevento kick off?
Modena vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Benevento part of?
Modena vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 50% chance of winning, Benevento a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Modena and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 1 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Modena and Benevento in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.52
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Modena xG
Total xG
2.11
0.78
Benevento xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Modena and 0.78 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Modena by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Benevento in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Modena or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benevento in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Benevento?
From 3 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Benevento 1-2 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 33%, Benevento 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Modena) and 33% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 33% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Modena's recent matches and 67% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Modena's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Benevento tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.