Mantova 0-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mantova face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mantova welcome Reggiana to Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 29 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mantova have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mantova's home record over their last 9 home games: 5W 3D 1L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mantova are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Reggiana have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mantova at 1.10 PPG versus Reggiana's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Mantova have won 0, Reggiana 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Mantova 2–2 Reggiana — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 53% versus Reggiana 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mantova 37% | Reggiana 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.28 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.970 / defence 1.013 | Reggiana attack 0.996 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.055. Data: built from Mantova's last 19 games and Reggiana's last 57.
Result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 29%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.54 | Draw 3.14 | Reggiana 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mantova's last 9 home games and Reggiana's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mantova 44% (last 9 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Mantova 1.28 / Reggiana 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.970 / def 1.013 | Reggiana attack 0.996 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Reggiana xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Reggiana kick off?
Mantova vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Reggiana?
Mantova 0 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Mantova vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Reggiana part of?
Mantova vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 39% chance of winning, Reggiana a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mantova and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Mantova vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mantova's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 19 games and Reggiana's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.14
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.34
1.06
Reggiana xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Mantova and 1.06 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 8D 6L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.21 PPG, Reggiana on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mantova's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across their last 9 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 9 away games (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Mantova (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Mantova vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Reggiana away?
Mantova's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 2.00 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mantova or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Reggiana in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 10 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Reggiana have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Mantova's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
1
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Reggiana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 0, Reggiana have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mantova and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2026: Reggiana 1-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 44%, Reggiana 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Mantova and 33% for Reggiana.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Reggiana in 33%; Reggiana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mantova's recent matches and 44% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mantova and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mantova's recent games and 33% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Mantova 0-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.28 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Reggiana outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 39% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 29%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 37%, Reggiana 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.21 PPG, Reggiana 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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