Sampdoria 0-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pisa (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sampdoria face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Sampdoria welcome Pisa to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pisa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pisa, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Sampdoria.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Pisa winning.
It is worth noting that Pisa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 61% and Pisa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 49% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.14 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.856 / defence 1.036 | Pisa attack 1.079 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.040. Data: 57 Sampdoria games / 57 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 33% | Draw 33% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Pisa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Pisa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 33% | Draw 33% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Sampdoria 1.14 / Pisa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.856 / def 1.036 | Pisa attack 1.079 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Pisa (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Pisa kick off?
Sampdoria vs Pisa kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Sampdoria vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Pisa part of?
Sampdoria vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sampdoria and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 3W.
What form are Sampdoria and Pisa in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.86) and Pisa's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
33%
3.05
33%
3.03
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.30
1.16
Pisa xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.16 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 17D 21L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.47 PPG from 57 outings (22W 18D 17L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.30 PPG, Pisa on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sampdoria's home form reads 9W 8D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.47 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Pisa in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 18D 17L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Pisa away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.25 PPG; Pisa away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pisa have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Pisa have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Sampdoria 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 54%, Pisa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sampdoria) and 46% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sampdoria's games and 61% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sampdoria's recent games and 46% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Pisa tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Pisa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.14 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Pisa attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 33% | Draw 33% | Pisa 34%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 49%, Pisa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.30 PPG, Pisa 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.