Mantova 0-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Mantova welcome Reggiana to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's home record at Stadio Danilo Martelli: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggiana have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mantova at 1.10 PPG versus Reggiana's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mantova, 0 for Reggiana and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 53% versus Reggiana 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mantova 37% | Reggiana 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.28 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.970 / defence 1.013 | Reggiana attack 0.996 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.055. Data: 19 Mantova games / 57 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 29%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Reggiana 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 44% | Reggiana 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Mantova 1.28 / Reggiana 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.970 / def 1.013 | Reggiana attack 0.996 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Reggiana xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Reggiana kick off?
Mantova vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Reggiana?
Mantova 0 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Mantova vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Reggiana part of?
Mantova vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 39% chance of winning, Reggiana a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mantova and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Mantova and Reggiana in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mantova's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.14
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.34
1.06
Reggiana xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Mantova and 1.06 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 8D 6L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.21 PPG, Reggiana on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mantova's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Reggiana away?
Mantova's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 2.00 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mantova or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Reggiana in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Reggiana have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Mantova's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
1
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Reggiana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 44%, Reggiana 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Mantova and 33% for Reggiana.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Reggiana in 33%; Reggiana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mantova's recent matches and 44% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mantova's recent games and 33% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Mantova 0-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.28 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Reggiana outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 39% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 29%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 37%, Reggiana 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.21 PPG, Reggiana 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.