Mantova vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Mantova welcome Benevento to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Mantova) versus 1.57 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Benevento trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mantova 71% and Benevento 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 57% | Benevento 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.39 xG and Benevento 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.074 / defence 0.988 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Mantova games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 46% | Draw 31% | Benevento 24%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 4.17. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 40% | Benevento 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 46% | Draw 31% | Benevento 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Mantova 1.39 / Benevento 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.074 / def 0.988 | Benevento attack 0.748 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Mantova (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Benevento kick off?
Mantova vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Benevento part of?
Mantova vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 46% chance of winning, Benevento a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mantova and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Benevento in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.07) and Benevento's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.27
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.32
0.93
Benevento xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mantova and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mantova and 0.93 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 2D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded. Mantova's scoring rate against Benevento's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Benevento in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 71%, Benevento 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mantova) and 43% (Benevento).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Mantova's games and 57% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Mantova's recent games and 43% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.