Mantova 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours Bari — this Mantova vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mantova welcome Bari to Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Mantova — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mantova's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bari away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Mantova) versus 0.70 (Bari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Bari have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Mantova. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Mantova 0–1 Bari — a Bari win.
Bari have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 57% versus Bari 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Bari 38%). Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Mantova recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.43 xG and Bari 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.985 / defence 1.488 | Bari attack 0.841 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Mantova's defence rating of 1.488 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Mantova's last 60 games and Bari's last 60.
Result probabilities: Mantova 40% | Draw 27% | Bari 33%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.50 | Draw 3.68 | Bari 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Mantova's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mantova 70% (last 10 home games) | Bari 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 40% | Draw 27% | Bari 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Mantova 1.43 / Bari 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.985 / def 1.488 | Bari attack 0.841 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Mantova (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bari xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Bari FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Bari kick off?
Mantova vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Bari?
Mantova 2 - 1 Bari.
Where is Mantova vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Bari part of?
Mantova vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 40% chance of winning, Bari a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mantova and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mantova vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.98) and Bari's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 60 games and Bari's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.68
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.70
1.27
Bari xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Mantova and 1.27 for Bari, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova's recent record stands at 15W 19D 26L from 60 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 14W 26D 20L across 60 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.07 PPG, Bari on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 11W 9D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 4W 13D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.98 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Bari
Blended
Mantova (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Mantova vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Bari in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 15W 19D 26L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while Bari have gone 14W 26D 20L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Bari away?
Mantova's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.40 PPG; Bari away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mantova's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
3
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Bari?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 1, Bari have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Mantova 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 53%, Bari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mantova) and 40% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Mantova have failed to score in 27% of games; Bari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Mantova's recent matches and 47% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mantova and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mantova's recent games and 40% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Mantova's recent matches and 63% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Bari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.43 xG and Bari 1.27 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.98 / defence 1.49 against Bari attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 40% | Draw 27% | Bari 33%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Bari 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.07 PPG, Bari 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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